AI Winter is coming
Brace yourself
I had an honor to be interviewed by Graham Lovelace from Charting Gen AI.
Charting Gen AI keeps you informed on generative AI’s impacts on creators, the ethics and behaviour of the AI companies, the future of copyright in the AI era, and the evolving AI policy landscape in countries around the world.
Watch the full interview:
We have talked about two my recent publications:
Publications are discussing how my predictions about GPT-5 have mostly come true — and what consequences the big disappointment caused by GPT-5 might have for the future of AI.
Meanwhile, AI CEOs kept saying the most absurd things. For example:
Ilya Sutskever once planned to build a bunker to protect himself from AGI.
Sam Altman, the bravest man alive, kept on working despite constant fear:
Dario Amodei, instead, would not stop scaring people:
The hero we deserve:
And now, GPT-5 is out and it is… “meh.”
GPT-5 has discredited not only OpenAI, but also the doomers, hypers, tech bros, and others. Unfortunately, it may have also tarnished the entire field of AI. A lot of investment was made under the assumption that unrealistic promises were true. Investors and those who bet on AI may no longer be able to distinguish between a feasible, valuable application and mere hype. They lost money, they didn’t get results - and they will likely stay away from this in the future.
We should all brace ourselves for the upcoming AI winter. It is essentially inevitable; let’s just hope it will be a short one.
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Keep it up — you’re helping provide a permission structure for mainstream tech journalists to write more critically about AI progress, not just social consequences.
E.g. Cal Newport’s recent piece in the New Yorker — https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/what-if-ai-doesnt-get-much-better-than-this
Maybe. Maybe not. The problem with AI booster hype is that it has summoned forth anti-AI booster hype.
Open AI has a meh launch, you say, maybe, but many say it was okay. Regardless, ask most people under 25 and they will tell you AI is already changing how they experience the world. Keep adding more AI features at say %3 compounded for 10 years--that's a mind revolution.